Bayesian calibration, validation and uncertainty quantification for predictive modelling of tumour growth: a tutorial

In this work we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example we calibrate the model against experimental data that is subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model

2022 Review of Data-Driven Plasma Science

Data-driven science and technology offer transformative tools and methods to science. This review article highlights the latest development and progress in the interdisciplinary field of data-driven plasma science (DDPS), i.e., plasma science whose progress is driven strongly by data and data analyses. Plasma is considered to be the most ubiquitous form of observable matter in the universe. Data associated with plasmas can, therefore, cover extremely large spatial and temporal scales, and often provide essential information for other scientific disciplines. Thanks to the latest technological developments, plasma experiments, observations, and computation now produce a large amount of data that can no longer be analyzed or interpreted manually. This trend now necessitates a highly sophisticated use of high-performance computers for data analyses, making artificial intelligence and machine learning vital components of DDPS. This article contains seven primary sections, in addition to the introduction and summary. Following an overview of fundamental data-driven science, five other sections cover widely studied topics of plasma science and technologies, i.e., basic plasma physics and laboratory experiments, magnetic confinement fusion, inertial confinement fusion and high-energy-density physics, space and astronomical plasmas, and plasma technologies for industrial and other applications. The final section before the summary discusses plasma-related databases that could significantly contribute to DDPS. Each primary section starts with a brief introduction to the topic, discusses the state-of-the-art developments in the use of data and/or data-scientific approaches, and presents the summary and outlook. Despite the recent impressive signs of progress, the DDPS is still in its infancy. This article attempts to offer a broad perspective on the development of this field and identify where further innovations are required

Hydroelastic optimization of a keel fin of a sailing boat: a multidisciplinary robust formulation for ship design

The paper presents a formulation for multidisciplinary design optimization of vessels, subject to uncertain operating conditions. The formulation couples the multidisciplinary design analysis with the Bayesian approach to decision problems affected by uncertainty. In the present context, the design specifications are no longer given in terms of a single operating design point, but in terms of probability density function of the operating scenario. The optimal configuration is that which maximizes the performance expectation over the uncertain parameters variation. In this sense, the optimal solution is “robust” within the stochastic scenario assumed. Theoretical and numerical issues are addressed and numerical results in the hydroelastic optimization of a keel fin of a sailing yacht are presented

International Consensus Statement on Rhinology and Allergy: Rhinosinusitis

Background: The 5 years since the publication of the first International Consensus Statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Rhinosinusitis (ICAR‐RS) has witnessed foundational progress in our understanding and treatment of rhinologic disease. These advances are reflected within the more than 40 new topics covered within the ICAR‐RS‐2021 as well as updates to the original 140 topics. This executive summary consolidates the evidence‐based findings of the document. Methods: ICAR‐RS presents over 180 topics in the forms of evidence‐based reviews with recommendations (EBRRs), evidence‐based reviews, and literature reviews. The highest grade structured recommendations of the EBRR sections are summarized in this executive summary. Results: ICAR‐RS‐2021 covers 22 topics regarding the medical management of RS, which are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Additionally, 4 topics regarding the surgical management of RS are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Finally, a comprehensive evidence‐based management algorithm is provided. Conclusion: This ICAR‐RS‐2021 executive summary provides a compilation of the evidence‐based recommendations for medical and surgical treatment of the most common forms of RS

Skeletal mechanism generation with CSP and validation for premixed n-heptane flames

An automated procedure has been previously developed to generate simplified skeletal reaction mechanisms for the combustion of n-heptane/air mixtures at equivalence ratios between 0.5 and 2.0 and different pressures. The algorithm is based on a Computational Singular Perturbation (CSP)-generated database of importance indices computed from homogeneous n-heptane/air ignition solutions. In this paper, we examine the accuracy of these simplified mechanisms when they are used for modeling laminar n-heptane/air premixed flames. The objective is to evaluate the accuracy of the simplified models when transport processes lead to local mixture compositions that are not necessarily part of the comprehensive homogeneous ignition databases. The detailed mechanism was developed by Curran et al. and involves 560 species and 2538 reactions. The smallest skeletal mechanism considered consists of 66 species and 326 reactions. We show that these skeletal mechanisms yield good agreement with the detailed model for premixed n-heptane flames, over a wide range of equivalence ratios and pressures, for global flame properties. They also exhibit good accuracy in predicting certain elements of internal flame structure, especially the profiles of temperature and major chemical species. On the other hand, we find larger errors in the concentrations of many minor/radical species, particularly in the region where low-temperature chemistry plays a significant role. We also observe that the low-temperature chemistry of n-heptane can play an important role at very lean or very rich mixtures, reaching these limits first at high pressure. This has implications to numerical simulations of non-premixed flames where these lean and rich regions occur naturally. (c) 2009 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Analysis of methane-air edge flame structure

We study the structure of a methane-air edge flame stabilized against an incoming mixing layer. The flame is computed using detailed chemical kinetics, and the analysis is based on computational singular perturbation theory. We focus on examination of the dynamical fast/slow structure of the flame, exploring the distribution of time-scales, the composition of the related specific modes and the effective low-dimensional structure. We also study the importance of chemical/transport processes for both major species and radicals in the flame, analyzing the information available from slow/fast importance indices as compared to reaction flux analysis. Results provide enhanced understanding of the flame, outlining the role of different chemical and transport processes in its observed structure

Adaptive chemistry computations of reacting flow

We present a new tabulation strategy for the numerical integration of chemical reacting flow processes on the basis of a non-stiff system of equations. Both the tabulation and the identification of the non-stiff system are adaptive and are based on the Computational Singular Perturbation (CSP) method. The tabulation strategy is implemented in order to store and reuse the CSP quantities required for the construction of the non-stiff model. In this paper we describe a particular feature of this algorithm, the 'homogeneous correction', that allows for an accurate and efficient identification of the manifold on which the solution moves according to the slow time scales. The improved efficiency in constructing the slow model and simulating the system dynamics along the manifold during run-time calculations is demonstrated

High-order AMR computations of reacting flow with adaptive reduction of chemical stiffness

We outline a high-order adaptive mesh refinement construction for low Mach number reacting flow computations. We illustrate the order of accuracy on a model problem and demonstrate the construction for methane-air ignition in 2D channel flow. We also outline a nonparametric tabulation strategy for computational singular-perturbation time integration of a general chemical system. We demonstrate this adaptive chemistry technique for H 2-O2 ignition. © 2008 IOP Publishing Ltd